Before I start I will preface this post with, the National Association of Realtors ("NAR") irritates me.  They are a (brain) washing machine that is stuck on the spin cycle.  They spin: numbers, words and home buyers & sellers (collectively, "Consumers") into transacting.  One of the ways that the NAR gets its message out to Consumers is through radio advertisements (see NAR's Public Awareness Campaign: Radio).

This morning while getting coffee I heard a NAR commercial on the radio that tried to persuade me to transact.  To summarize the ad, they told me that there has never been a better opportunity to buy a home because the inventory of homes for sale has never been greater.  Did you catch that last part, inventory of homes?  Phrases like this are what drive my disdain for the NAR.

They are spinning the truth and making it seem like the Consumer is an idiot if they don't buy a home right now.  What truth are they spinning?  Inventory.  The reason why the inventory of homes has never been greater is because of the large increases in foreclosures and REOs.  They are spinning foreclosures and REOs into a more pleasant and palpable word: inventory.

The facts are that foreclosures and REO properties have never been greater because the housing bubble has burst.  Calculated Risk posted an excellent chart today that shows foreclosure activity using OCC and OTS reports.  For Q2 2009 nearly 1,000,000 foreclosures were in process and roughly 375,000 homes recently started the foreclosure process.  There is your "inventory" folks.  

What is the point of this rant?  I want you to critically think.  Think about the message behind the ad.  Whom is the NAR helping?  Are they helping you or its network of real estate agents that live off of commissions?  Is this really the best time to buy?  For a new homeowner the answer might be yes.  However, for most existing homeowners I would argue no.

Recommended Reading:
Calculated Risk, OCC and OTS: Foreclosures, Delinquencies increase in Q2
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Book: The Wallstrip (TM) Edge: Using Trends to Make Money -- Find Them, Ride Them, and Get Off

Author: Howard Lindzon

My Recommendation: Buy it and read it at a minimum twice.

Stop! Before you continue reading this book review turn off all the distractions around you.

There's just too much noise being thrown at us on a daily basis. To me, the average investor is now best served by doing less and cutting costs to the bone. Learn to control the noise so you can find trends. (page 7)

These words are insightful and contain important lessons. The first time I read those words I cast them aside into the "that makes sense" pile. Having completed reading the book for a second time I am beginning to get what Howard is talking about. I have been investing, seeking investments and pursuing my career all wrong: clumsily and loudly.

Clumsily...

• Reading headlines and taking them for face value (letting panic and worry affect me)
• Investing based on rumors, speculation and hope -- I'll make up for the failure of my speculative investment by dollar-cost averaging down.
• Accepting jobs with no exit strategy...where do I want to go from here?

Loudly...

• Lots of TV
• Plugging into music instead of engaging others in conversation
• Following too many people on Twitter
• Trying to absorb too much information (RSS feeds and magazines)

The lists could (and do) go on and on...

Please notice that I mentioned my career in addition to my investments. I think that is another component of Howard's book that should be focused on more. Finding trends and riding them is not just about investments it's also about finding trends in your life. What are the good things that are happening to you right now? Find those life trends and continue to invest in yourself to maximize happiness. The beginning and ending of Howard's book talks about how to harness what is happening around you. Pay attention to those clues.

Returning to the quote above, Howard says, "Learn to control the noise so you can find trends." What I have done since finishing the book for a second time is put this into action. How? I have, to steal another phrase from Howard, declared "time bankruptcy."

• I have unsubscribed from all my RSS feeds and will slowly start re-subscribing
• I have reduced my must watch TV shows to a few, and
• I bought a simple journal to carry around with me

The purpose of the journal is to help me "control the noise." When something interests (or bothers) me I'll write it down so I can revisit my notes at a later time. A time when I am of a clearer mind or, even better, when my notes help me spot an opportunity to make an investment in my life (financially, spiritually, or personally).
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